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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.09.25 03:03z 412 Lines 11261 Bytes #1 (0) @ WW
BID : 8866_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-AUG
Path: SR8BBS<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<K5DAT<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 250816/0730Z 8866@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
JAVA SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (JSN)
COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593
WW 593 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 160200Z - 160800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEBRASKA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 900 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE, MERGE, AND GRADUALLY
ORGANIZE AS THEY PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE-WIND GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS A PROBABLE LINE OF STORMS
ORGANIZES/EVOLVES.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PHILIP SD TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PIERRE SD. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 591...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
25025.
...GUYER
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591
WW 591 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 152225Z - 160400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 525 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND
AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY AS
STORMS MERGE/ORGANIZE AS THEY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF
REDWOOD FALLS MN TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF EAU CLAIRE WI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 590...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
28025.
...GUYER
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0593 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0593 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0592 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 592
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E BRL TO
30 SSE RFD.
..LYONS..08/16/25
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 592
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-095-123-143-155-175-179-203-160240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU KNOX MARSHALL
PEORIA PUTNAM STARK
TAZEWELL WOODFORD
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0591 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 591
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MKT
TO 40 NNW EAU.
..LYONS..08/16/25
ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 591
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC049-131-157-160240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOODHUE RICE WABASHA
WIC011-017-019-033-035-053-091-093-109-121-160240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUFFALO CHIPPEWA CLARK
DUNN EAU CLAIRE JACKSON
PEPIN PIERCE ST. CROIX
TREMPEALEAU
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0590 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 590
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW ALO
TO 40 SE RST.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953.
..GRAMS..08/15/25
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 590
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC015-073-085-131-161-195-152140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL HENRY JO DAVIESS
MERCER ROCK ISLAND WHITESIDE
IAC005-011-019-031-037-043-045-055-061-065-095-097-103-105-107-
113-115-139-163-183-191-152140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BENTON BUCHANAN
CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON
CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE
FAYETTE IOWA JACKSON
JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK
LINN LOUISA MUSCATINE
SCOTT WASHINGTON WINNESHIEK
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SPC MD 1959
MD 1959 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0859 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ARIZONA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 160159Z - 160400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING, THUNDERSTORM WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE DISORGANIZED
NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ARIZONA. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN AN
AREA BEING GLANCED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA.
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE UP TO
3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE MEAGER (AT OR BELOW 20
KNOTS), PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES AND STEEP
LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO DCAPE IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG, AND APPROACHING 2000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THE LACK OF EVEN MODEST CLOUD-LAYER WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND WATER-LOADING OF UPDRAFTS. WHEN
THIS IS COMBINED WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPE AND DCAPE, ISOLATED
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED
NATURE OF THIS POTENTIAL A WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.
..MARSH/GUYER.. 08/16/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
LAT...LON 30910959 30821076 32111257 34061433 34991423 35061309
34151205 32921098 32090996 31510936 31080925 30910959
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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SPC AUG 16, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN
IOWA...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
AN ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY STILL EVOLVE LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS.
...01Z UPDATE...
STRONGER WESTERLIES REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
LATITUDES, NEAR/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF ONE SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE HUDSON
BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO VICINITY, MODEST WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
(INCLUDING SPEEDS OF 30-40 KT AROUND 500 MB) IS OVERSPREADING AREAS
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE DAKOTAS INTO UPPER MIDWEST, NEAR THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SEVERAL
DEVELOPING CLUSTERS OF STORMS. A COUPLE NOW PROPAGATING EAST OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING, LIKELY DUE TO SOME COMBINATION OF WEAK/WEAKENING LIFT AND
INCREASING INHIBITION BENEATH RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO
MIDWEST.
BENEATH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UPSTREAM, BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IS
STILL CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG TO EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA, AS SCATTERED HIGH
BASED CONVECTION EMERGES FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT,
NEAR THE NOSE OF A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET, COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A CONSOLIDATING AND UPSCALE GROWING
CLUSTER, PARTICULARLY AS ACTIVITY ACQUIRES MORE UNSTABLE INFLOW
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT,
INCLUDING THE NAM AND RAPID REFRESH, SUGGEST THAT THE EVOLUTION OF A
NOTABLE CONVECTIVE PERTURBATION IS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SWATH OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 08/16/2025
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JAVA - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 4.1
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